With the elections for the non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) slated for June 17, Kenyan and Djiboutian diplomats must be in frantic last minute lobbying.
In more conventional times, the election of either country would be a done deal well before the General Assembly in New York this Wednesday.
Over a decade ago, the African Union adopted a consensus approach to guide the nomination African representatives to serve for a two-year stint at the UNSC. Under this consensual arrangement, there has been no contest that Kenya’s candidature represents the continent.
But as it has been reported since last August, the rotational African representation on the UNSC will go all the way to the wire this time round.
Kenya and Djibouti failed to reach an agreement on who would be nominated from the eastern Africa region. The fact that Kenya failed to convince its eastern African counterparts in the first instance is increasingly being pointed at as a challenge to its diplomatic clout.
PROCESS CONTESTED
The matter was escalated to the AU. For instance, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi was called in to mediate between President Uhuru Kenyatta and President Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti but the negotiations fell through.
With avenues for a compromise failing, an election was called with Kenya garnering the most votes. But Djibouti contested, not so much the election as the process and presented itself as a candidate at the UN.
The winner between Kenya and Djibouti will have to garner a two-thirds vote of UN member states to make it to the UNSC.
What therefore are factors that will see either country winning or losing? What is the game plan?
Ideally, the seat would be Kenya’s without much ado. The factors going for Nairobi are substantial. The major factor is that it has the endorsement of the AU and that Djibouti, notwithstanding its protestation, is essentially going against the grain.
ENDORSEMENT
However, Djibouti has received endorsement from the 57-member Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) as well as the 54-member Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF). This complicates things for Kenya because some African member states have cross-member in the AU and the two organisations. In other words, the Kenyan bid cannot entirely count on the AU endorsement as a fait accompli.
However, analysts identify the fact that the other countries that would be representing Africa are Niger and Tunisia as a potential plus for Kenya. If Djibouti won, it would mean that the UNSC has three countries representing French-speaking nations with a strong link to the OIC.
Significantly, Kenya has articulated a more robust agenda for its would-be tenure whilst one struggles to understand exactly what Djibouti’s campaign agenda is. Those in doubt can do a quick internet search to ascertain this claim.
TACK RECORD
Of its 10-point agenda, a significant one is Kenya’s track record in international peace and security ranging from the deployment of thousands peacekeeping troops over the years to peace mediation efforts in the eastern Africa region.
No less important is, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), one of the top 20 countries globally in terms of granting protection to refugees. Kenya therefore scores highly on the matters of humanitarian diplomacy.
Djibouti has countered Kenya’s peace and security bona fides by stating it has a high per capita peacekeeping footprint. Others argue that Kenya’s squabbles with Somalia muddy the waters with regards to its peace mediation in the horn of Africa nation. It will not be lost on observers that Djibouti’s historical and cultural composition is quite close to that of Somalia.
A factor that will stand Kenya is good stead of its competitor is its diplomatic experience. Hosting the global headquarters of UNEP and UN-Habitat have given the country hands-on skills in managing global affairs.
SELF-INTEREST
A downside for Kenya is that its diplomatic capacity has often been too self-interested for the comfort of other African nations. A current example is that of its bilateral trade agreement with the US seen breaching the spirit of regional and continental negotiation.
Part of Kenya’s diplomatic heft is on account of its population and economic size on the continent. But this advantage is contested by Djibouti on the strength of the argument that small states too matter. If such an argument held traction, Kenya would have to reckon with the fact that small UN-member states might favourably consider Djibouti’s candidature. On a global scale however, Kenya is a relatively small country geographically and a lower middle economy.
A seemingly neutral and global factor is that both Djibouti and Kenya have fairly good relations with the five veto powers of China, France, Russia, United Kingdom and US. A lot has been said of Djibouti hosting naval bases for China, France and the US as a strength. But there are lots of factors to show that Kenya has equally strong ties economic and security ties with these powers.
The writer is research and partnership director, African Centre for the Study of the US, Wits University.
