Delivery of second Covid-19 doses in doubt

India’s vaccine shortage is expected to stretch into July, according to the Serum Institute of India (SII), raising fears of delay of the vaccine delivery to Kenya.

The firm is the main producer of AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine and was contracted by the Covax Facility, from where Kenya is getting its doses, to produce vaccines for more than 100 countries, most of them in the developing world.

Speaking on Wednesday, Health Acting Director General Patrick Amoth said the AstraZeneca vaccines should be delivered into the country by the end of May but “if the situation in India improves”.

“We have commitment from the Covax Facility and the SII.  Hoping that the situation in India improves, our timelines still stand at the end of May,” he said.

The Ministry of Health had earlier issued a directive that the second dose of the vaccine will be received 12 weeks after the first dose, instead of the eight weeks it had earlier announced.

“That will give us a window of opportunity. It is scientifically proven and even supported by the World Health Organisation (WHO),” said Dr Amoth.

He said it was normal to receive the vaccine after 12 weeks, based on a scientific research.

“Hoping that the situation in India stabilises, then we are looking at the end of May to get the second consignment of the vaccines,” he said.

But, SII Chief Executive Officer Adar Poonawalla said vaccine shortage would continue until July, when dosage production is expected to increase from about 60-70 million doses a month, to 100 million.

He said the Covid-19 vaccine production capacity was not boosted on time because “there were no orders” and the company did not think it would need to produce more than a billion doses a year. This is after India’s cases declined in January.

Unfortunately, surging Covid-19 cases and deaths in the country have caused a sharp shortage of supply of the vaccine — even to the Covax Facility, as it battles the surge through massive vaccination.

According to Mr Poonawalla, the second wave in India was not expected to hit India as hard as it has, affecting global supply of the vaccines. This is after the South Asian country banned export of vaccines so as to handle the situation at home first.

Kenya received its first consignment of 1.02 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine on March 2, after the Covax Facility received doses from SII, and another 100,000 from the Government of India.

This was part of 3,564,000 doses allocated to Kenya, and the reminder of 2.5 million doses was expected in early April.

But the timelines were reviewed to May after it became clear that it was not possible to get the vaccines in April.

Due to the shortage, the government will deploy any vaccine brand that comes into the country first, said Dr Amoth.

“Whichever vaccine will come earlier, we will deploy. But, we hope that the AstraZeneca will come first because it is easier for us since we already have that platform,” he said.

He added that research is ongoing on the possibility of mixing vaccines, so that those who have received the first dose of AstraZeneca vaccine can receive the second dose from a different brand.

As of Tuesday, the Covax Facility had shipped more than 53 million Covid-19 vaccines to 121 participants, including Kenya. Some of the countries that have received the second consignment of the vaccines are Brazil, which received 3,981,600 doses on May 2, and Indonesia, which received 3.8 million doses on April, 26.

To boost vaccine production, the United States government has waived trade-related aspects of intellectual property on Covid-19 vaccines.

Manufacturers will get ingredients to make more Covid-19 vaccines, said Health Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe.

In a statement he said, “We have been advocating this waiver as it presents another opportunity for more manufacturers to produce more vaccines.

“This is especially welcome when we consider that most developing countries have been experiencing Covid-19 vaccine supply disruption occasioned by vaccine nationalism,” he said.

As of yesterday, 906,746 people had been vaccinated, out of which 278,642 are 58 years old and above, 159,982 are healthcare workers, teachers (141,571), security officers (76,578), and 249,973 are in other categories.

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