By July 4, 2023, clear scientific prediction indicated a strong accuracy towards an El Niño event, with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) announcing a 90 per cent chance of El Niño conditions persisting in the second half of the year.
On 22nd August, the Igad Climate Prediction and Application Centre confirmed the likelihood of El Niño rains across the Greater Horn of Africa.
Furthermore, the Kenya Meteorological Department affirmed these predictions by releasing a seasonal forecast on August 30 highlighting the projected rainfall performance across the country. It is expected that the country will experience above-average rainfall in most parts, well distributed in time and space.
Coming from devastating desert locust invasion and five consecutive failed rainfall seasons, Kenya is once again to be faced with major consequences of an extreme weather event as El Niño conditions are predicted over the October, November and December rainy season.
El Nino events occur when there is a positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) caused by warmer than average sea surface temperatures. The IOD affects the sea surface temperatures and rainfall patterns in the Indian Ocean and its surrounding regions.
Previous El Nino events had devastating impacts including flash flooding, landslides, loss of life and livelihoods and collapse of infrastructure such as dams and buildings. El Nino also has the potential to cause widespread destruction of farmlands and therefore affect food security sector.
At this point, the concern for the safety of lives and livelihoods is inevitable. Organisations mandated with national and public safety should be taking necessary steps to mitigate and reduce the adverse impacts of
El Nino. Progress in the field of disaster risk management has developed tools and systems that can be applied at a household or community level with little to minimum resources. This anticipatory approach offers communities a window of opportunity to use early warning information in early actions.
Let me break it down: Kenya has an advanced level of early warning systems where each county has a devolved structure of meteorological service with the capability to cascade down the national level forecast information to the county level. It is now possible to know where and when the extreme impacts will occur.
The Kenya Meteorological Department produces a seasonal forecast of three months before the projected weather event, followed up with progressive updates for one month, one week to 24 hours. This information is packaged in simple to read and easy-to-access ways using mobile-based platforms such as WhatsApp.
Early warning information is important because, with climate change, the scope and extent of traditional disaster-prone zones are likely to expand and change. Traditionally safe may experience devastating impacts of extreme weather events as climate change has the potential to create new vulnerabilities and disaster risks.
Early warning information can help you make decisions and take early actions to protect you and your livelihood. For instance, water contamination may occur and may result in waterborne diseases. These can be prevented by ensuring proper storage of drinking and domestic water.
Heavy rainfall may result in bumper harvest and but also crop destruction. Steps such as building gabions, terraces and trenches on farmland could help prevent water clogging. It is also important to plant crop varieties that are water-tolerant during this season.
It is possible that some buildings/infrastructure may be vulnerable to heavy rainfall due to weak building materials, weak foundations, location along flood-prone areas among other reasons.
Before the rain begins, it is important to take necessary steps to reinforce buildings at risk of destruction where possible and evacuate to higher grounds where reinforcement is not feasible.
Sand bagging can be used around the house to prevent flooding water from inundating the house and clearing drainage systems can significantly reduce the risk of flooding water and waterborne diseases.
While the government maintains the primary responsibility to protect its citizens, effective disaster risk management is a shared and collective responsibility with the population. We should not wait until it is too late to act.
