Agriculture Chief Administrative Secretary Andrew Tuimur has come out with some disturbing facts about the current state of our maize subsector.
The overall harvest will be down from 44 million bags last year to 33 million bags this year. Land under the crop has shrunk from 2.2 million hectares to 1.5 million hectares.
This decline is attributed to a number of factors including drought, a rather patchy late onset of rains and the persistent Fall armyworm attacks.
But it is more than that. Maize farmers’ morale has declined significantly due to the above factors and others to do with slow payments and high cost of inputs, which was compounded by the late arrival of subsidised fertiliser.
Some would argue that the industry also needs to pull up its socks and become more efficient, and lower its high costs of production.
Another frequently raised point is that North Rift farmers, in particular, are a vocal and powerful lobby, especially on issues of prices and imports.
These can be seen as often being at variance with the country’s need for regular supplies of maize at more affordable prices.
The overall picture coming out is of a subsector that is in need of serious evaluation, support and reform if it is to avoid further decline.
Several pertinent issues about maize come to mind. First is that it’s the foremost staple food in Kenya, so price rises and shortages trigger the alarm bells.
Secondly, Kenya in general has a structural deficit in maize production. In a good harvest year, the country will produce enough maize.
In a mediocre year, the country may just get by with informal imports from its neighbours. In a bad year, transatlantic imports are necessary.
The key to knowing whether Kenya will produce enough maize is understanding whether the North Rift crop is good or bad given that it’s the region that produces the surpluses.
It is noteworthy that Kenya is a major importer of Ugandan and Tanzanian maize surpluses when there are production shortfalls.
These imports are often informal, and get absorbed into the maize market relatively easily. Indeed, they have helped avert serious shortages.
Most of the maize produced in Kenya is rain-fed. It is often argued that the way out of its structural deficit cage is to have more maize grown under irrigation.
This policy plank has suffered a setback with the tribulations of projects such as the Galana-Kulalu irrigation scheme, and now the counter argument that irrigation projects should be smaller and not of the big-bang variety.
So where are we by way of meeting the needs of the country’s consumers in the coming months?
As things are, Kenya might just make it until March 2020. Fears persist that shortfalls would be happening now but the informal imports and crops boosted by late rains have helped to plug that gap.
Conversely, one might argue that some duty-free international imports at this juncture would have helped to dampen the price rises.
Of particular importance is that a duty-free tariff window on yellow maize for animal feed would help in lowering the cost of various meat products. But to date, neither has happened.
The smaller-than-usual North Rift surplus crop will kick in from November and hopefully carry the country through until March and April next year.
As things stand, the country will need to be importing the equivalent of three to four million bags per month until August/September, next year.
Our neighbours may be a useful source, but the amount needed is such that it may need to be supplemented by Mexico and other surplus producers.
