Those who have been seeing Raila Odinga since his fifth loss of the presidential race say things have changed from handshake to head shake with Raila shaking his head uncontrollably every other minute as he apparently mulls about what would have been had he done things differently in the 2022 decider.
Sources close to Raila say his temperament nowadays oscillates between regrets, bitterness and lately frustration.
Regrets because he did not listen to those who told him to approach the 2022 poll race from different tactical angle, bitterness because he let himself as seasoned as he is to become project of state and frustration with Uhuru Kenyatta who has now abandoned Azimio ship in high seas leaking.
It is against this background that a tiff over sharing of parliamentary service commission positions among Azimio is to be seen.
Although many had thought that Azimio was different from other coalitions they have seen and that it would do things less deceptively, what Raila is doing directing that ODM takes all the juicy positions is pointer that things are back to the prehandshake era where Raila and Uhuru were in a cat and rat relationship.
Matters are worsened by the fact that Uhuru did not add any political value to Azimio and it is now emerging that Raila and Kalonzo Musyoka are jittery over the issue.
Weekly Citizen has information that talk in the new power plan is that associating with Kenyatta and Moi families is costly politically, hence the need to divorce them ahead of 2027 elections, and the desire to start laying ground early in the opposition.
Ever since he lost to Ruto, the relationship between Raila and Uhuru has not been cordial as it was before election time.
Reports indicate that the two rarely talk on phone, and that the last time they met was when Uhuru visited Raila at his Karen home while nursing some injuries after a fall.
The fall was attributed to the loss with talk Raila drank too much to drown his sorrows on the day Supreme Court upheld Ruto victory.
On hindsight, Raila suspects that Uhuru was not serious to campaign for him with all state machinery at his disposal and that he would have made sure Raila presidency dream materialised.
The manner in which Uhuru hijacked Raila’s campaigns is also something political analysts and consultants will study for long.
ODM was forced to come in late after it realised that all was not well on the ground as its campaign strategies had been punctured and fractured.
To complicate matters was the fact that despite promising to fund Raila’s fifth bid, the Kenyatta and Moi families did not contribute much as expected.
Reports indicate that the Kenyatta family only contributed a half a billion to Raila campaign kitty while Moi through former Baringo Senator Gideon Moi only gave Sh50 million.
This was despite the fact that Raila was being labelled as part of the dynasties, and out to protect the two family fortunes once he Raila was in power.
The Raila association with Uhuru and Gideon proved costly to an extent that about millions of voters did not participate in August 9 elections, who initially were comfortable with Raila but became uninterested due to his collaboration with two families that have ruled Kenya, making more enemies than friends.
Other political analysts aver that millions who did not vote were not comfortable with either William Ruto or Raila’s presidency preferring someone outside the box.
Those pushing for Kalonzo 2027 want to capture the said millions and are aware of Moi and Kenyatta families factors as they plot to face Ruto.
Keen observers have noticed that Raila has been working closely with Kalonzo sidelining Uhuru’s Jubilee and that he has no time for Gideon’s Kanu.
Word had it Raila wanted Gideon to land East Africa Legislative Assembly position but it never was.
Impeccable sources confided that Raila has also raised concern with the club of billionaires from Mt Kenya region who threw their weight behind the ODM leader’s presidential bid and vowed to flex their financial muscle in his campaigns.
At a luncheon held at the Safari Park Hotel and attended by Raila, four cabinet secretaries and three principal secretaries, the tycoons who form the Mt Kenya Foundation promised to mobilise their resources and reach out to other regions especially Ukambani and Maa-speaking counties, to back the veteran leader.
They never delivered Mt Kenya vote. Weekly Citizen has information that initially, Raila was against Martha Karua being his running mate and wanted Kalonzo but Uhuru and the tycoons forced him to eat what they wanted.
Raila also blames the tycoons for not donating billions of shillings to his campaign as expected.
Briefs we have indicate that Mount Kenya moguls and Uhuru were part of the stalled talks that would have seen Raila and members of Kenya Kwanza Alliance of then ANC Musalia Mudavadi, Ford K Moses Wetang’ula, Kalonzo and Gideon join hands to face Ruto.
The manner in which Uhuru involved the tycoons in his succession left many guessing as to the reason why he had opted to take sides.
It is said that the tycoons and Uhuru fear was that if they teamed up, the possibility of Raila picking a Kikuyu as his running mate would be remote.
Uhuru wanted a Kikuyu to be second in command to Raila.
For now, the strategy Raila is developing is out to bring Kambas, Luos and Luhyas together.
Kalonzo is to be president flagbearer with a Luhya deputy.
The deputy slot is to go to either Mukhisa Kituyi or Eugene Wamalwa.
The idea is to split the Bukusu vote that gave Ruto swing vote win.
Kalonzo is to rule for one term and groom a new face 2032.
With Ruto likely to back Gachagua 2032, the Luhya vote will expect Kalonzo to leave power to one of them 2032.
It is claimed the Mt Kenya Foundation Group led by Peter Munga abandoned Raila at the hour of need and did not honour their pledges.
It has also emerged that Ruto garnered more than double the votes that were cast in favour of Raila at Uhuru’s polling station – Mutomo Primary School in Gatundu South something Raila has not come to terms with.
A total of 983 ballots were cast in favour of Ruto of Kenya Kwanza while Raila got 464 votes.
The polling station where Uhuru voted has a total of 2,164 registered voters and only 1,460 turned up to vote.
In Kirinyaga county despite Uhuru fronting for Karua, Ruto pulled an upset.
At Mugumo Primary School in Gichugu constituency where she voted, Ruto garnered 911 votes against Raila’s 311 votes.
Gideon on the other hand failed to deliver his polling station to Raila.
Raila garnered only 21 votes at the Tandui Primary School polling station in Sacho where Gideon voted. On the other hand, Ruto got 248 votes from the same station.
These are some of the indicators that made Raila and Kalonzo to realise that their brothers and sisters in the coalition took them for a ride and presided over Raila’s flop at the fifth stab at the presidency.
Uhuru, apparently, chose Karua to deputise Raila to safeguard interests of Mount Kenya region.
Uhuru had in a pact with Raila retained the right to appoint the Azimio coalition running mate, on the understanding that he would offer his backing for the ODM party leader’s presidential candidacy.
That Raila and Kalonzo are not comfortable with Uhuru and Gideon is no secret.
ODM and Wiper politicians are of late speaking with one voice.
Kalonzo has been with Raila addressing press conferences with Gideon missing in action.
Last week Uhuru’s Jubilee Party threatened to pull out of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition after its nominee was locked out of the lucrative PSC.
The Jubilee MPs accused Azimio leaders in parliament of shortchanging them in the three available slots for the coalition.
The MPs argued that the three slots were to be shared, one each for Jubilee, Raila’s ODM and Kalonzo’s Wiper.
The Jubilee MPs led by its secretary for parliamentary group and Eldas MP Adan Keynan, and Isiolo senator Fatuma Dullo assailed ODM for what they termed “political conmanship and deceit in grabbing their position”.
Other MPs who attended the press conference at Parliament Buildings that bashed Raila were Senator Abdul Haji (Garissa), Sarah Korere (Laikipia North MP), Ruweida Mohamed (Lamu West), Amos Mwago (Starehe), Aden Daud and Amina Siyad.
The protest came a day after Azimio leadership in the senate engineered the removal of Dullo’s name, a member of the Jubilee party from the list of the coalition’s nominees to the commission.
The senators approved the motion by minority leader Stewart Madzayo to amend the list that came from the national assembly to remove Dullo.
Azimio leaders presented and parliament approved the names of Likoni MP Mishi Mboko (ODM), Patrick Makau (Wiper), and Okong’o Omogeni (ODM).
Another battle line has been drawn over those nominated to battle it out for the East African Legislative Assembly slots.
Twists and turns were witnessed before the final Azimio la Umoja list was presented to the clerks of the committees for vetting.
In the end, Kalonzo’s son Kennedy Musyoka, Raila’s daughter Winnie Odinga, Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni and Mombasa businessman Mohammed Shahbal made it to the shortlist.
Others who are battling for the four positions set aside for Azimio are former Kieni lawmaker Kanini Kega, former Shinyalu MP Justus Kizito Mugali, former Wajir woman rep Fatuma Gedi, Timothy Bosire, ex-Wajir South MP Mohammed Diriye, Winfred Mutua, Hellen Ndeti and Beatrice Askul.
Weekly Citizen has established, Uhuru of late talks to Ruto more frequently than Raila and the president has told his allies to spare attacks on Uhuru.
Ruto allowed Uhuru to use the presidential jet to Rwanda recently after the former president requested.