After nearly 10 years of not seeing eye-to-eye politically, it seems like circumstances are once again creating best friends of William Ruto, Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi.
With the Kibra by-election sending strong signals that the betrayal among the Jubilee ranks and Nasa ranks is real, Ruto, Kalonzo and Mudavadi options are few, with supporters urging them to not only cast the net farther, but also throw it in different waters ahead of the 2022 transition polls.
With Nasa literally no more, it is understood the DP’s core support base now wants him to give in to the inevitability of new political combination in the runup to the 2022 State House race, with Mudavadi and Kalonzo now earmarked as prized catches to scuttle Raila’s designs on determining the country’s political power standpoint.
The common denominator of the emerging push for a new political formation is the widening split in Jubilee, where Ruto’s supporters feel their man is no longer wanted, if not appreciated. In any case, they argue, it is no longer a secret that the DP is increasingly being isolated in the ruling establishment.
In the Kibra case, for instance, Ruto single handedly maneuvered to have Jubilee field a candidate to, mainly, challenge Raila’s ODM. The push and pull saw party bigwigs waver in finding and fielding a candidate, with secretary general Raphael Tuju leading the pro-handshake caucus opposed to offering its candidature.
But the fighter in him saw an unyielding Ruto pluck footballer Macdonald Mariga from obscurity to plunge him into the murky waters of politics that are Kenyan politics. Even when he thought he had pulled a fast one on his detractors, the DP would struggle to suppress the image of an isolated captain, left on his own to fight party battles – real or imagined.
It took weeks before he secured an appointment to present Mariga to Uhuru Kenyatta at State House. During the occasion, Uhuru casually pledged his support for Mariga, a body language ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi read too much into.
True to the word, neither Uhuru nor his party allies would show up for the campaigns that bore the hallmarks of a penultimate grand finale, where big money, sweat and tears prevailed.
Mudavadi
Incidentally, nominated MP Maina Kamanda, the face of anti-Ruto’s Kieleweke formation of Jubilee, was at the same time hogging the limelight at Capitol Hill – Raila’s operational base – announcing his backing of Imran Okoth, the ODM candidate.
During the Kibra campaigns, the handshake featured prominently, with Uhuru’s close allies drumming up support for the ODM candidate citing the president’s blessings.
Former Nairobi woman representative Rachel Shebesh even boldly proclaimed that Uhuru was supportive of the ODM candidate. As the storm gathered, Jubilee politicians including Kirinyaga governor Anne Waiguru, Kamanda and Shebesh trooped to Kibra to vouch for Imran.
An angry Ruto, having spent slightly over Sh1 billion on Mariga campaigns, reportedly locked out his foot soldiers in Kibra by-election from a scheduled meeting at his Karen residence. The Kibra debacle has awoken Ruto to the reality that he can suffer a similar fate if he uses his team as currently constituted in his presidential bid.
On their part, Mudavadi and Kalonzo are bitter with Raila for his refusal to share ODM’s Sh4.2 billion political party’s windfall on the one hand, and a memorandum of understanding that restricted Raila to 2017 presidential bid on the other.
Their differences were there for all to see during the Kibra campaigns where they struck different chords. Insiders aver the DP has already started dismantling his campaign team and is now shopping for seasoned and tested leaders to team up with to first water down the outcome of BBI as a measure towards 2022.
Kalonzo
The DP is said to have started wooing the two former vice presidents using his allies from the Central and Rift Valley region. Prior to the Kibra by-election, Ruto and Kalonzo reportedly held talks to map out ways of blocking Raila from ascending to the top.
Kalonzo’s bitterness with Raila was amplified during the Kibra by-election campaigns after the ODM leader convinced governors Charity Ngilu (Kitui), Alfred Mutua (Machakos) and Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni) to join his team. Ngilu and Mutua are the former VP’s sworn enemies while Kivutha recently fell out with him. The three are however of little political consequence in Ukambani where Kalonzo determines which side the community faces.
It is understood Ruto’s strategists who include senators Kipchumba Murkomen (Elgeyo/Marakwet), Aaron Cheruiyot (Kericho), Samson Cherargei (Nandi) and Susan Kihika (Nakuru) are helping out in reshaping their man’s trajectory.
Others are a Dr Ruto (financial mobiliser at campaign secretariat), MPs Nixon Korir and Caleb Kositany of Langata and Soy respectively and the DP’s personal assistant Farouk Kibet.
Ruto is angry that leaders from Jubilee did not support his pet project in the by-election and fears they may gang up with Raila in drumming up support for the BBI before backing the former prime minister in 2022.
During Mariga’s final campaign rally, Uhuru chose to go to his Gatundu backyard instead of joining the party’s candidate in the hunt for votes, a matter that infuriated the DP.
The DP was also furious after Interior PS Karanja Kibicho allegedly withdrew police officers on the eve of the by-election to Mariga’s detriment.
The DP, insiders say, believes Interior cabinet secretary Fred Matiang’i directed Kibicho to order police to turn a deaf ear on pleas by Mariga supporters for enhanced security during the voting in Kibra.
Ruto also takes issue with restricted foreign travel and the recent Kenya Army passing out parade at the Recruits Training School in Eldoret where he was left out and the president’s surprise flight to Kisumu.
Muhoho
The DP has also had to watch helplessly as his main financiers are hauled to courts to answer graft charges. Those already facing fraud charged include former Kenya Pipeline managing director Joe Sang and former Kenya Power bosses Ben Chumo and Ken Tarus, all close allies of the.
According to those in the know, Ruto is now waiting for the outcome of the BBI that, should it pass, he plans to use to his advantage by striking a seats’ share formula with Kalonzo and Mudavadi just like Uhuru and Raila plan.
As a matter of fact, there are even those who say that the Rut0-Kalonzo-Mudavadi alliance will end up more formidable than the Uhuru/Muhoho-Raila-Gideon Moi lineup moreso after it emerged that the Kikuyu population is no longer the behemoth it used to be. The census results of 2019 have sent shockwaves in Kikuyu land which has historically browbeaten other communities using their hitherto huge numbers. Indeed, it has turned out that Ukambani and Western counties boast bigger populations than Central Kenya something that has made Mudavadi and Kalonzo become admirable brides politically.
In Uhuru-Raila scheme, it is said, Uhuru’s younger brother Muhoho will be prime minister and Raila president with Gideon deputy president or second prime minister. Should Ruto manage to have a strong player from Mt Kenya in his lineup, this could scuttle the Uhuru-Raila scheme especially because Kikuyus are now allegedly vowing never to have anything to do with the Kenyattas again after the Kenyatta II administration crippled them economically
