With the campaigns officially closing on August 6, William Ruto and Raila Odinga are finalising their strategies to win in the first round by garnering 50pc votes cast plus one vote. Even as Ruto fights to avoid a re-run, a recent internal report by UDA strategists states, all is not well during the DP’s final home stretch as he faces a number of hurdles. The entry of Uhuru Kenyatta to campaign for Raila in what was perceived to be Ruto strongholds is a cause of worry. Further, opinion carried across the country shows Ruto is behind Raila. Analysts say, Ruto finishing power compared to that of Raila is likely to cost him. Added on is talk, UDA is facing serious financial tribulation, unable to recruit presidential agents across the over 46,000 polling station. Uhuru’s recent meeting with Kikuyu and Kalenjin elders in Nakuru where he openly talked ill of Ruto has made the deputy accuse the president of planning to kill his children. Each of the two candidates is targeting at least 10 million votes to be guaranteed a win in the first round.
George Wajackoyah
According to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission voters’ register, there are 22.1 million registered voters across the 47 counties while the diaspora community has 10,443 registered voters. Counties in the Mount Kenya region and the Rift Valley carry the bulk of the voting population in what appears to be a presidential race that may end up being determined by the historical battlegrounds in the northern part of the country and parts of the South Rift. According to voter details published by the IEBC, the Rift Valley region which is home to 14 counties remains with the highest number of voters at 5.34 million. Central Kenya which is home to five counties has 3.1 million voters, the same as the Nyanza region which has six counties including Kisii and Nyamira. Nairobi, though a single unit, follows with 2.41 million voters and it is one of the most critical counties for the presidential race. The six coastal counties have a total of 1.96 million registered voters, while Ukambani’s three counties contribute 1.69 million voters. The upper Eastern region comprising Meru, Marsabit, Isiolo and Embu counties has a total of 1.59 million voters, majority of them in the Mt Kenya region. The North-Eastern region of Garissa, Wajir and Mandera contribute the smallest number of voters but could be a tie-breaker in a tight contest. Further analysis shows that the 10 counties of the Mt Kenya region including Laikipia and Nakuru counties from the Rift Valley bring 5.7 million registered voters. In the past two general elections, the region voted as a bloc with an average of 93pc for Uhuru. Six counties of the Rift Valley from both North and South Rift, that is Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo/Marakwet, Baringo, Kericho and Bomet contribute 2.2 million voters. The Western region’s five counties including Trans Nzoia has a total of 2.61 million voters. After Nairobi, Kiambu follows in the list of top six counties with 1.27 million voters followed by Nakuru (1.05 million), Kakamega (844,000), Meru (772,000) and Machakos (687,000). Narok has 398,000 voters, Kajiado (463,000), Trans Nzoia (398,000), Garissa (201,000), Wajir (207,000) and Turkana (238,000). For a presidential candidate to be declared winner, they must also secure more than half of the votes and also secure at least 25pc of votes in half of the counties which is 24. Both Raila and Ruto are worried that opinion polls point to a runoff as none is clinching the 50-plus one vote needed for a round one win. The latest poll released by Trends and Insights Africa showed neither Raila nor Ruto would secure a first-round win if elections were held today. According to the poll released last Friday, Raila’s popularity grew by 4pc to stand at 46.7pc, while that of Ruto grew by 5pc to 44.4pc. The poll also showed Roots Party’s George Wajackoyah has a popularity rating of 1.8pc while Agano Party’s David Mwaure came last with a 0.1pc approval rating. Tifa analyst Tom Wolf disclosed that 4pc would not vote if elections were held today, noting the presence of Wajackoyah and Mwaure raises the possibility that neither Raila nor Ruto will be able to secure an outright, first-round win. The poll showed the former prime minister is most popular in Nyanza and Western, while his Kenya Kwanza counterpart is the preferred candidate in Central, Rift Valley and Northern Regions. For Wajackoyah, his support across all the regions stood at above 1pc attracting most of his support from Coast and Lower Eastern while Mwaure attracted slight support in Coast, Nyanza and Mt Kenya. And now Raila and Ruto are holding mini and mega events across counties as they unleash all kinds of campaign gears seeking to convince voters to elect them and give them victory in the first round. For Ruto, he became the talk of the town after he unveiled a six-wheeler truck estimated to cost Sh100 million gifted to him to use on his presidential campaigns by undisclosed donor. The eye-catching fuel guzzler has become a magnet attraction to hustlers to attend the deputy president’s campaign rallies. On his part Raila has increased choppers whose pilots swirl round in circles in campaign venues before landing in style as signal of the huge financial muscle at his disposal. And now Weekly Citizen is in possession of each candidate’s plan to click the 50 plus one vote to avoid a run-off. Both candidates fear a run-off due to the expenses involved and fatigue for them and voters. Whereas Raila is enjoying Uhuru Kenyatta and the state’s support, he is working on a strategy to bag the presidency in the first round fearing a re-run will sap him energy, which at 78 years could be fatal. Raila’s advanced age and failing health, Azimio fears, would make him mince meat for Ruto in case of a rerun. Azimio’s strategy is to take the vote battle to 18 counties of Mt Kenya and Rift Valley perceived as Ruto’s strongholds to make sure the deputy president spends most of him time putting out fires in his strongholds. Raila’s strategy is also to keep under lock and key his perceived 20 counties strongholds of Nyanza, Western, Coast and Ukambani. In the about nine counties considered swing votes, Raila’s plan is to ensure he keeps the lead by forcing Ruto to spend most of his time putting out fires in his strongholds. In the past few days, Raila has been to Kirinyaga, Nakuru, Nyeri, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Kiambu, Nyandarua and Laikipia which are Ruto’s strongholds. He also took the battle to Ruto’s bastion of Rift Valley, visiting Uasin Gishu, West Pokot, Baringo and the Maasai-dominated counties of Narok and Kajiado. Over the weekend, Raila was in Narok at the Suswa grounds where he has previously held statement rallies to retain the Maa votes. The Azimio brigade was scheduled to hold a mega rally at the Eldoret 64 Stadium then head to the neighbouring Nandi county where the members were scheduled to meet the region’s electorate in Kapasabet town. The first day of August will see the coalition head back to the Mount Kenya region and pitch tent in Kiambu county. The Kiambu tour will be wound up in a rally at the Kirigiti Stadium. Raila will then head to his backyard in the Nyanza region for a rally at the Gusii Stadium on Tuesday, August 2. He will hold another rally at the Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega county on Wednesday, August 3. Raila will then head to Kisumu where he is scheduled to attend a rally at the Jomo Kenyatta Stadium. On August 5, the coalition that brings together over 20 parties will take its campaigns for the Raila and Martha Karua ticket to the Coast region. Azimio is expected to convene a rally at the Tononoka where Raila has also held rallies in the past. The Azimio faction will wind up its campaigns in the country’s capital on August 6 in line with the dictates of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. The Azimio secretariat has settled on the Kasarani stadium as its final venue. Ruto on his part is working on a strategy to keep under lock and key his perceived strongholds that voted for Uhuru and him in the 2013 and 2017 elections almost to a man. He has been storming his perceived strongholds whenever the Azimio brigade visits with a view to neutralising any gains his rival could have made. The UDA candidate equally has a tight schedule for the hustlers’ agenda as he seeks to firm up support bases and snatch more votes from Raila’s strongholds. Ruto has been to Kirinyaga where he asked voters to help him “send Raila to Bondo” days after Raila and Karua visited the region. The UDA candidate has also been to Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi days after Raila campaigned there. Last week, he was in Nandi, Bungoma and then Busia before heading to Garissa and Mombasa, ending the week in Kakamega. This week Ruto, accompanied by his running mate Rigathi Gachagua, is scheduled to visit Laikipia, Nyandarua, Nakuru, Nyeri and Murang’a, all considered to be behind his presidential quest to neutralise any gains Raila made in the latter’s visits. He will also campaign in Kirinyaga and finally in Kiambu, where his boss, Uhuru, hails from. The DP’s final rally is expected to be at Nyayo Stadium on August 6, after which all campaign activities will end to give voters time to reflect ahead of the August 9 voting day. Ruto has also decided to take Uhuru Kenyatta headon with his calculations based on the assumptions the outgoing head of state has little influence in his Mt Kenya backyard. Last week, Ruto even dared the president, telling him he was ready to face him but asked him not to kill his children. But Uhuru is not sitting pretty and is scheduled to flex his muscles in his backyard and complement Karua’s efforts in what Azimio hopes to be a gamechanger.
David Mwaure
The head of state plans to launch government projects and campaign as he explains to his home turf why they should back the Raila and Karua. His first stop will be in Nyeri where he will launch the Mwai Kibaki Hospital after the upgrade of the facility and subsequent change of name from Kenyatta National Hospital Othaya Annex in honour of former president Kibaki. The head of state will also traverse the region to thank the voters for the support that saw him complete his two terms and give them political direction. The busy schedule will also see him unveil the Sh350 million Narumoru Level Four Hospital with a 170-bed capacity constructed during his reign. He will also launch Chaka market which has been upgraded to promote trade and offer a ready market for farmers from the region. The president will also tour Karicheni location where he will commission the apparel centre project that will tailor police and military uniforms. His itinerary also indicates that he will visit Kimathi University and lay a foundation stone for the Sh3 billion Cancer Centre at the institution. Raila will however not accompany the president during the tour in what is believed to be a calculated strategy to deny the rival Kenya Kwanza outfit the opportunity to drive the narrative that the Azimio candidate is the president’s project. Others however say that Raila quietly views Uhuru support as counterproductive given the palpable unpopularity of Uhuru among those who voted for him in 2013 and 2017. Last week, Uhuru was in Nakuru where he asked residents to vote for Raila. Speaking during the commissioning of the Nakuru Railway Station, the president said that his handshake with the Azimio presidential candidate was meant to unite Kenyans and achieve peace as had been the case when he embraced Ruto. He dismissed Ruto’s candidature, stating the deputy president does not have the interests of the Kikuyu community at heart. It is a message that however is seen as hitting a steel wall as Kikuyus vow to vote for Ruto in even more numbers than they voted for Uhuru. The talk in Mt Kenya area is that whereas they woke up at 5am to vote for Uhuru, they will now wake up at 2am to go vote for Ruto. We want to have Ruto shed tears from the love we will show him, they say.
