The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued a warning that the country is expected to receive poorly distributed rainfall during this year’s October, November, and December (OCD) seasons.
The forecast indicates that the country will experience a late onset and an early cessation, especially in the Eastern region, where several parts of the highland west of rift valley, the Lake Victoria basin, and central and south Rift Valley will continue to receive light rains in September.
Speaking at a Machakos hotel, when issuing the national weather forecast report, KMD Deputy Director Climate Services Dr David Gikungu noted that the country is already experiencing drought conditions, particularly in Arid and Semi-Arid counties due to inadequate rainfall over the last four seasons
“The short rains constitute an important rainfall season in Kenya particularly in the Central and South-Eastern regions of the country. The seasonal forecast indicates with high confidence that most parts of the country are likely to experience depressed rainfall with higher probabilities over the Eastern section,” he said.
“During the season, it is likely that most areas will have a generally poor distribution in both time and space. Despite the depressed rains, isolated incidences of storms that could cause flash floods are likely to occur,” added Gikungu.
The Deputy Director said that the temperature forecast indicates that for the larger part of the country, the season will likely bring warmer than average temperatures, especially over the Eastern parts of the country.
Dr Gikungu expressed concern that a fifth consecutive failed rainy season would be devastating for the millions of people, already suffering from the drought.
He pointed out that the expected depressed rainfall will be driven by cooler than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), over the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean, which is adjacent to the East African Coastline.
He added that this will be coupled with warmer than average SSTs over the Eastern Indian Ocean (adjacent to Australia), which constitutes a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that is unfavourable for enhanced rainfall over most of East Africa.
“Additionally, the SSTs over much of central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean are below average, suggesting the presence of La Nina conditions. La Nina conditions are likely to persist throughout the OND season, according to the majority of global climate models,” said Gikungu.
“The areas with increased probabilities for below-average (highly depressed rainfall are North Eastern Counties (Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo), Coastal region, parts of Southeastern Kenya (Kitui, Makueni, parts of Machakos, Taita Taveta, and Kajiado), parts of Embu, Meru and Tharaka Nithi.
He however said that a small section of the Western sector of the country (Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia, Trans Nzoia and West Pokot) are likely to receive near-average, tending towards below-average rainfall.
“The forecasted depressed rainfall during the months of October to December 2022 is expected to deteriorate the prevailing drought conditions over most of the arid and semi-arid regions of northern and Eastern Kenya, which could lead to preceded impacts,” he said.
Ministry of Agriculture official Jane Reuben noted that climate change and the expected low rainfall will greatly affect the agricultural sector.
“In this season, the county will have depressed rainfall, with that we anticipate declined performance in the agricultural sector and this might trigger an increase in food prices,” said Jane.
“The poor performance of the agricultural sector poses a food deficit that requires contingency planning on food acquisition in form of imports among other initiatives by the government and other stakeholders,” she said.
Health Official Michael Mwania said that they expect increased highland malaria as well as emerging and re-emerging vector-borne diseases.
“We expect malaria outbreak in the highland zones, in some parts of Nandi, Kericho, Kisii, Uasin Gishu and Food insecurity that is malnutrition in Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Baringo, Narok and Nairobi counties,” said Mwania.
“We also expect cases of jigger infestation in Murang’a, Kiambu and Nyeri, cases of malnutrition (Nutrition implications-due to food shortages) are expected in North Eastern parts; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa as well as the Coastal Region Tana River, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita-Taveta, Mombasa, the Eastern Region; Embu, Meru Makueni, Kitui, Machakos and in the Rift Valley region; Kajiado, Samburu,” he added.
Mwania said that the key response measures include activation of health emergency and epidemics preparedness and response for malaria, yellow fever and cholera, in addition to enhanced management of malnutrition at health facilities and community levels.
